Openhand
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Peak Oil - 2007/06/19 17:21
Heard of the theory of Peak Oil? If you haven't it might be worth getting clued up sooner rather than later! Here's Wikipedia's definition...
According to Hubbert peak theory, peak oil is the date when the peak of the world's conventional petroleum (crude oil) production rate is reached. After this date the rate of production is predicted to enter terminal decline, following the bell-shaped curve predicted by the theory. Some observers such as Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Matthew Simmons, and James Howard Kunstler believe that because of the high dependence of most modern industrial transport systems on inexpensive oil, the impending post-peak production decline and possible resulting severe price increases will herald negative implications for the future outlook of the global economy.
M. King Hubbert, who devised the theory, predicted in 1974 that peak oil would occur in 1995 at 12-GB/yr "if current trends continue". The U.S. Department of Energy predicts that the peak won't happen until 2037. Colin Campbell, a well-known petroleum geologist, has put the tilting point at 2010. On the other hand, Kenneth Deffeyes, had predicted it would occur in 2004.
Proponents of this theory are called Peakists. Nay sayers like CERA do not believe there will be endless abundance of oil, but instead believe that global production will eventually follow an “undulating plateau” for one or more decades before declining slowly.
Because of world population growth, oil production per capita has already peaked in 1979 (with a plateau 1973-1979).
The effect of oil peak is that the rate at which oil is demanded will outstrip the rate at which oil can be supplied. As oil supplies dwindle in relation to demand, the price at first escalate and then soar. The shortfall will either have to be made up through conservation or through alternatives.
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